JPMorgan notes Tesla to capture nearly all robotaxi revenue. The bank's latest analysis projects $320 billion in robotaxi revenue by 2035, with Tesla owning the fleet rather than sharing the wealth with individual car owners.

JPMorgan notes that Tesla is poised to capture nearly all robotaxi revenue, projecting $320 billion by 2035, with the company owning the fleet rather than sharing it with individual car owners. The bank upgraded Tesla from "underweight" to "neutral" in June 2026, lifting its price target to $475 per share, a 227% increase. Tesla’s competitive advantage lies in vertical integration, as it builds the cars, writes the software, and collects the fares. The company’s autonomous ride-hailing service, launched in Austin in June 2025, has expanded to Dallas, Houston, and the Bay Area, with a focus on its purpose-built Cybercab platform. JPMorgan expects Tesla’s total revenue to reach approximately $203 billion by 2030, with half of that growth coming from robotaxi operations.

• Tesla’s fleet economics allow it to control maintenance schedules, vehicle cleanliness, insurance costs, and the customer experience.
• The company’s Full Self-Driving software stack has accumulated approximately 10 billion cumulative miles of driving data from a global fleet of around 9 million Tesla vehicles.
• JPMorgan’s analysis highlights the risks associated with regulatory approvals and safety validation for fully autonomous vehicles.
• The competitive landscape includes Alphabet’s Waymo and Amazon-backed Zoox, with Chinese firms like Baidu and Pony.ai also scaling rapidly.

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