Rivian’s autonomy gamble faces its first real test

Rivian’s autonomy gamble faces its first real test as it rolls out its point-to-point hands-free driving feature in 2026, with the first test group being its own employees. The feature is part of Rivian’s plan to become a full-stack autonomy player, with robotaxi launches in partnership with Uber in 2028. The company believes autonomy is a key differentiator and market driver, but it faces financial risks as it struggles to build and sell its mass-market R2 vehicles. Rivian’s CEO, RJ Scaringe, has been using the point-to-point system in his commute, calling it “a wonderful” experience. However, the take rate for Autonomy Plus remains undisclosed, and Rivian is expected to spend more on AI systems than it brings in.

Rivian reported $605 million in revenue from software and subscription services in Q3 2026, a 45% year-over-year increase, and $256 million in profit in software and services, up $102 million from last year with a 42% profit margin. The company is concerned about rising costs for computer chips, memory, and electronics, and adding two processors and costly lidar sensors to some R2 models could impact profits. Rivian’s execs are envious of Tesla’s FSD take rate, which is over 75% in North America, and the company is at the front end of an inflection point where the point-to-point system could become a major purchase criterion. However, the feature will face hurdles like edge cases and urban driving complexities, and a crash could damage its brand and reputation. Rivian cannot afford to sit on the sidelines and concede the autonomy crown to Tesla and Waymo, but self-driving tech could help it achieve big profits despite financial risks.

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